Despite apparently very long odds, Bernie Sanders has refused to drop out of the race to become the Democratic Party’s nominee over opponent Hillary Clinton. Even political outsiders understand how unlikely his nomination is, leading many to wonder exactly why he’s still in the race.
Can Sanders Still Win?
According to a number of political commentators, Sanders’ odds are grim. CNN points out that even though New Jersey and the always-valuable California are up for grabs, “Sanders lacks a credible mathematical path to overhauling Clinton’s wide lead in pledged delegates.”
With Clinton having 54 percent to Sander’s 46 percent of those delegates, it’s easy to agree with Hillary Clinton’s assessment of Sanders’ chances: as she said in a recent interview, “I will be the nominee for my party…That is already done, in effect. There is no way I won’t be.”
Effectively, Sanders’ only real hope is one that he has mentioned often: getting enough of the superdelegate vote. Despite Clinton’s mathemetical advantage on pledged delegates, she will likely not have enough to get her party’s nomination outright.
Instead, things will be left to the superdelegates–these are the 712 Democratic delegates who are able to vote however they want, regardless of the outcome of their states. Could they theoretically shift things for Sanders?
They certainly could, but they would likely need to be swayed by Sanders winning states in a much more major way than his often too-narrow victories. It also doesn’t help that many superdelegates openly pledged themselves to Clinton early on, something Sanders vocally criticized.
They would need to change their minds, and as Vox points out, that is unlikely to happen “the superdelegates are supporting Clinton as she’s winning the pledged delegate and popular vote totals, just as they did with Barack Obama in 2008.”
Why is he still in the race?
Aside from the gamblers’ need to roll the hard six, why is Sanders still running? One of those reasons is his principles, in an interview with Jake Tapper Sanders said, “The last I heard is that we are a democratic country, and that elections are about vigorous debates over the issues.”
He is right, of course, though his continued run has also taken much of Hillary Clinton’s steam away, and many Democrats are starting to worry about how viable she will be against Donald Trump.
Interestingly, one of the few qualities that Trump and Sanders share is that they were both originally considered “protest candidates,” standing up for people and groups not traditionally represented well in Washington.
In that same interview, Sanders cites this as another reason that he is still running: “What the Democratic leadership has got to understand is that not all of my supporters go to these fancy fundraising dinners. They’re working people who are hurting now, who want real change in the economy.”
Another reason Sanders may be staying in is interesting, though it constitutes a dangerous game for Democrats. He is forcing Clinton to be more honest and, in some cases, more liberal.
Many of Sanders’ supporters detest Clinton for the reason that they find her too conservative for their tastes. By staying in the race as long as he has and gaining the support that he has, Sanders has shown the viability among Democrats of his so-called “democratic socialist” ideals that are in stark contrast to Clinton’s corporate-friendly platforms.
Sanders has certainly had an effect on how Clinton campaigns. U.S. News notes that Sanders’ upset win in Michigan “resulted in an all-out effort by Clinton to explain and defend her record on trade” ahead of their clash in Vermont.
And after Sanders’ surprise win in West Virginia, Clinton amped up her appeals to the coal state of Kentucky–filled with the blue collar workers that Sanders considers his bread and butter. She won that state very narrowly.
What Does It Mean?
While this would likely happen anyway, Sanders’ continued campaign is helping to secure a Trump victory. Sanders is, on principle alone, chipping away at whatever appeal Clinton had for most moderates and forcing her to embrace some of the leftist ideals that will drive away others.
It will leave us with one nice thing to say about the Democrats in 2016: they may have lost the presidential election, but they did it on principle.
