Although the chances of a government shutdown happening may have seemed remote as recently as a month ago, the odds of one actually happening due to a Congressional showdown are rising fast. The global investment bank Goldman Sachs is now quoting the risk of a shutdown as being at least one in three, and some analysts believe it may be even higher than that.
What’s the reason for this potentially negative development? Mostly, one can point fingers squarely at the Democratic Party, and the obstinacy of lawmakers such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
While the Democrats have griped about many of President Donald Trump’s executive orders and legislative priorities, the rubber is beginning to hit the road. This is particularly true in the Senate, where the Republican majority is maintained by only two members.
In order to pass a federal funding appropriation bill to keep the government functioning, there needs to be a 60-vote majority in the Senate. That means at least eight Democrats would have to join their Republican colleagues in agreeing to all of the items contained in the bill.
Senate Republicans are already grumbling that they may keep initiatives such as funding for President Trump’s border wall, or the stripping of money for sanctuary cities out of the legislation.
A month ago, it seemed that this fight might not be such a struggle. But as the president has become more obstinate about pushing the “nuclear option” to get his Supreme Court nominee confirmed and has taken unilateral military action such as his recent cruise missile strike on a Syrian airfield, Democratic lawmakers have become emboldened to “make a statement” that, to a certain extent, “the bucks” stop with them.
Even beyond merely agreeing to Republican initiatives, some Democrats are now talking about mandating the inclusion of cost-sharing subsidies for the still-functioning Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), otherwise known as Obamacare. Some Senate Democrats are reportedly thinking about playing a game of “chicken” with the president over these provisions in order to keep the government functioning.
Even if passage can be brokered in the Senate, there are still enough Republican fiscal conservatives in the House that there will need to be support for a bill from Democrats there as well.
Current Congressional appropriations expire on April 28, so a new bill — or at least a short-term extension to the currently operating one — needs to be agreed upon by that time. While a short-term extension can exclude controversial agenda items like those mentioned above (the border wall or immigration-related measures), a longer-term extension would likely need to include them, hence Democratic support in the Senate would be required. This means that the month of May could be the real target date for a Senate showdown.
If a shutdown somehow doesn’t occur in May, there’s a much greater chance that one could happen in October at the start of the government’s next fiscal year. This is because limits on the federal debt will begin to constrain borrowing by the Treasury Department. At that point, Congress will have to make serious decisions about medium-term government spending levels.
Democrats are pushing hard for less defense spending and more domestic spending for this fiscal year, which Republican lawmakers have indicated they may be willing to accept. But starting October 1, those priorities will likely have to reverse according to GOP demands.
It should be noted that the last government shutdown occurred in 2013, and it lasted two weeks before Republicans and Democrats agreed to negotiate on funding for Obamacare. Because Republicans didn’t pay a significant price at the ballot box the following year in midterm elections (actually quite the opposite was true), the lesson for Democrats is that it’s highly possible their base won’t hold them accountable if a shutdown does happen.
“I think we want to keep the government open,” said President Trump about the matter, while Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Mick Mulvaney stated that “while we don’t expect a [shutdown to occur], prudence and common sense require routine assessments to be made.”
The OMB said it held a conference call to discuss specific steps that would be taken if a shutdown were to indeed occur. At the same time, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said “[The administration] remains confident we’re not going to have a shutdown,” dismissing the OMB actions as standard preparations that were also ordered last December in the final month of President Obama’s term.
If a shutdown does actually happen, it would delay tax reform from being enacted later this year, if it happens at all. Thousands of federal employees would be furloughed, while thousands of others would likely work without pay until the government reopens.
This latter group would likely include workers in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Some benefits to veterans could be suspended by the government, and national parks such as the Grand Canyon, Yellowstone Park and the Statue of Liberty would be temporarily closed.
While fallout from the shutdown would potentially produce bad publicity for all lawmakers, Democrats would definitely feel a pinch. The length of the shutdown would ultimately be what determines whether it became a minor or a major issue for voters in the midterm elections of 2018.
~ American Liberty Report
