Let’s talk about this recent press conference with Trump and Putin. Whether you support what Trump said or think he bungled it, the real problem in the room was a left-wing reporter who was sincerely trying to incite global conflict.
Putin and his officials have been aware of our investigations all along. They’re not exactly closely held secrets. Whatever we ultimately find in regards to hacking and election meddling, none of that was the primary topic or purpose for the summit. It was an attempt to maintain a dialogue and prevent already tense relations from devolving into something more dangerous.
In the face of that, a reporter decided that their best move was to encourage Trump to pick a fight with Putin face to face. Thankfully, Trump was quick enough on his feet to not allow that incitement to occur. As it stands, he’s now in a position to negotiate with Putin, and that’s the real topic today.
When the world was torn between capitalism and socialism, China and the Soviet Union entered into a predictable friendly relationship. Even as socialism started to collapse around the world, the two regions held fast to their traditional relationship.
As of today, Asia is mostly dominated by the influence of China and Russia, but things are not as happy as they might seem on the surface. Tensions are building between the countries, and Russia, especially, would like new opportunities.
One of the biggest sore spots for Russia is China’s one road initiative. At the risk of oversimplifying, it’s Beijing’s attempt to restore the Silk Road of old to become a modern and dominant trade route across Asia. They’re investing billions, and while progress is slow, it is steady.
For the last hundred years, Russia has maintained the safest land routes across Asia. China’s initiative is working to bring a competitive, stable alternative. It doesn’t just threaten Russian income. It will undermine some of their fundamental influence in regions across Asia.
Because of their history, Russia has been the primary supplier of modern weaponry to China since the Cultural Revolution. Today, Russian-designed aircrafts, weapons, naval vessels, communication and pretty much everything else a military needs are found throughout the Chinese forces.
What’s changing is that China has realized that intellectual theft can be extremely profitable. The same illegal tactics that they have used against the U.S. for the past 15 years are now being turned against Russia. The Chinese are reverse engineering many of their Russian toys.
That alone would be an insult. The injury comes when the Chinese turn around and sell that same technology to Russian buyers for cheaper prices. They’ve only just started doing this, but there’s no reason they won’t escalate.
When you add it all up, you can see that Russia is in a tight spot. With the EU pressing on the west and China pressing on the east and south, Putin’s country needs new opportunities.
Enter Donald Trump.
Despite what every leftist in the country will try to tell you, President Trump is not in Moscow’s pocket. In fact, his goal is to create a reverse situation. So far this year, Trump has steadily turned the screws in a pitched economic battle against China. He’s clearly winning, but a few key factors could really cinch the deal. More than anything else, cooperation from Russia could put China’s back to the wall and force them to start abiding by international trade agreements.
It all boils down to simple math. The U.S. dominates global trade, but China has enough dedicated partners to stay afloat for now. If Russia were to waver on that dedication, it would make enough difference to force capitulation. And, Russia’s incentive to do so is only growing. It all falls to the age old question:
Will They or Won’t They?
There’s no guarantee that Trump can seal Russian cooperation. At his best, Putin is a rogue dictator and prone to following his own whims. The real question actually has less to do with Russia and more to do with the EU. You might remember that Trump was recently extremely critical of Merkel and Germany’s new agreement to buy billions in natural gas from Russia. This is less of a security concern and more of an economic pressure issue. If the EU allows enough of a trade outlet for Putin, the Chinese pressure alone won’t be enough to force him to work with Trump.
For anyone keeping score, it really does look like extremely complicated, 3D chess. Trump is applying pressure to the EU and China to secure better direct deals for us. At the same time, he is using NATO connections and security agreements to keep Russia off balance. If he can pull it off, the end result is favorable trade with all of the world’s players and a new, far friendlier relationship with Russia.
There’s plenty that can go wrong with such an intense juggling act, but the one thing you can trust is that we won’t be worse off for Trump’s efforts. Even if he can’t secure Russian cooperation against China, he’s still winning the direct battle with the Chinese, and it’s probably only a matter of months before they commit to a wider set of agreements with the U.S.
Even while all of this is happening, he’s working fervently to denuclearize both North Korea and Iran. It’s a level of dedicated effort we have never seen from an American President. It would be ridiculous to expect him to win all of these engagements, but the risks to America are virtually nil, and every win he does score will rewrite history for many years to come.
This is what he meant when he said you’d get tired of winning. If nothing more, it’s a shining beacon of hope that we haven’t seen this century.
