A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll shows that the supposed inevitable “blue wave” that would give the Senate back to the Democrats may never make it to the midterms. The poll shows that instead of gaining its needed 2 seats, the Democratic Party is on the verge of losing three.
Surf the news and one would think Republicans are about to be washed away by a flood of blue. A recent demonstration at SeaTac’s Detention Center drew well over 10,000. And everywhere you look on the news you see thousands of impassioned progressives across America. CNN, MSNBC, and the like routinely pronounce this as proof that the Blue Wave is on its way.
John Carlson of Crosscut says nothing could be more wrong. He notes that amidst all the “noise, chants and sign waving, the blue wave is shrinking.” He points out it doesn’t seem like it’s shrinking in the Seattle area or in other liberal metropolitan areas like New York, Washington D.C., and San Francisco. Those areas are becoming “bluer still” but that has nothing to do with Senate elections in North Dakota or West Virginia, states that voted solidly for Donald Trump.
Trump won ten states, some by double digits, in which Democratic senators are up for re-election. It’s likely that Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota have no desire to be seen as an ally of the resistance. The same holds true for Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Montana, and Missouri.
There are two big reasons that Democrats are likely to lose U.S. Senate seats this fall and find it tougher for them to capture the House.
One wall in Democrat’s way is the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy. Nothing brings activists out from the woodwork more than a Supreme Court vacancy. While progressives on the left are doing their best to paint Trump appointee Brett Kavanaugh as the devil incarnate, Senators like Manchin and Heitkamp probably wish that progressives on their side would tone it down.
Some who were on the fence before the election, voted for Trump for one main reason – a Supreme Court appointment. Now he has two in his first term alone.
A significant number of Democratic incumbents face a catch 22 – antagonize already angry liberals in their state by supporting Kavanaugh or vote against him. If Senators from states that support Trump so overwhelmingly join efforts to block Kavanaugh it will only feed the feeling they have caved to the Never Trump movement.
The Kavanaugh appointment puts Democratic candidates in a predicament. Run left, where the progressive gravity of your party is pulling you, or toward the middle, where real voters live.
Another obstacle to the supposed blue wave that would overwhelm Republicans this year is the resistance movement within Democrats own ranks.
The resistance that the mainstream media feeds on is pulling the Democratic Party to the fringes. A place where most lifelong Democrats voters aren’t likely to venture. Some point to the recent upset victory of 28-year old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and see this as the portent to certain Democratic victories in the general election. Such could not be further from the truth. Queens is not middle America, and that is where Democrats must win to regain the House.
Another recent poll shows an unexpected deterrent to a Democratic blue wave. Democratic leadership had flirted with ideological extremism and its identity politics is fraying the party’s own coalition.
White millennials, one of the most primary elements of Barack Obama’s successful coalition both of his election, are beginning to drift away. A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 16,000 white millennials reveals that while 2-in-3 don’t approve of Donald Trump, they are also losing interest in the Democrats.
In 2016, the springtime survey showed that nearly half of white millennials preferred a Democrat for Congress and just 33 percent wanted a Republican. Now two years later, the same survey shows the parties tied at 39-39 percent among millennials. The most dramatic change has been among white millennial males with a shift toward the Republicans from 36 percent then to 46 percent now.
That trend even has a name that has gone viral – #WalkAway. Many Millennials have announced the revulsion to intolerance, hate and narrow-mindedness that made them vote for Democrats is now driving them away from the left.
It makes one wonder if a blue wave ever existed in the first place.
~ American Liberty Report
