Now that the dust has settled, and Trump has won the presidency, from a political perspective, it’s probably time to start thinking about the future.
Trump is only one of the three main branches of government, and if he wants to have any hope of enacting his initiatives, he’ll have to play well with the others. With the Republicans in control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, that will likely be easier than it would have been if the Democrats controlled a majority of either chamber.
But at the same time, challenges will remain, not the least of whom are members of Trump’s own party — particularly the more conservative and elite factions who comprised the #NeverTrump movement or who even may have voted for Hillary Clinton.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will be a key go-to person, and the bad blood between Trump and Ryan may make interactions between the two more difficult than they might have been otherwise. But remember, Ryan in the end voted for Trump and is a member of the GOP — despite not enjoying the popularity of other prominent individuals of his party.
Vice-President Mike Pence will lead the Senate and work with that contentious forum to help bring about the reforms he and Trump have been pushing.
It’s said that the success of a political leader rests on his or her ability to work with people on the other side of the aisle, and Trump is no stranger to the Democratic Party; he was once a member of it, and he’s been friends with prominent Democrats (including the Clintons, until recently) all his life.
As a businessman, he needed to work with politicians from both parties to execute his real estate development and stay within legal frameworks with his various companies. He needed to lobby for permits, permissions and rights of way, and he’s intimately familiar with the bureaucracies of government.
But at the end of the day, Trump is a personality person, and he tends to either take to people quickly, or not. He can be pugnacious if cornered, and the partisan battles of Congress may yet get the better of him. But still, Trump is a negotiator if nothing else, and his dealings with representatives from the opposing party will probably remind him of dealing with business rivals such as Merv Griffin, who he famously battled with for control of Atlantic City.
A bigger challenge for Trump may be “draining the swamp” that is Washington.
Trump’s campaign promises to dispose of whole departments of the government were lofty, but from a practical perspective, they may not be achievable; the entrenched bureaucracies of three-letter departments are not necessarily subject to unilateral dismantling by the chief executive.
“I would hope that he would embrace some radical program terminations, but I’m not holding my breath,” remarked Chris Edwards of the Cato Institute’s blog on downsizing government. Edwards noted that Trump had not talked about getting rid of subsidies for transit, energy, housing, farms and schools — perennial targets for conservatives.
For Trump to say that he will “gut” whole departments such as the EPA, the Energy Department or the Department of Education may be easier said than done; presidents typically have the power to make appointments and veto bills, but eliminating entire portions of the government is likely unrealistic.
A better example of the kind of reform Trump wants to make is to take apart the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Protection Law, which some financial analysts say is a drag on the economy and on banks. But even members of his own party, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, want to move down this path cautiously.
Trump wishes to audit the Pentagon and to eliminate much fraud and waste there, but Washington insiders say this would mean encroaching on some Congressional leaders’ turf and going up against intelligence and defense bureaucrats who will have been in their jobs far longer than Trump. Trump is a cost-cutter, and he would like to vastly reduce the cost of government for the average citizen, but powerful interests will surely stand in his way.
Trump wishes to reduce the size and scope of foreign conflicts the United States gets caught up with, and one of his close advisors, retired Lt. General Mike Flynn, says that the U.S. is involved in “too many conflicts that just seem too perpetual.”
At the same time, Trump has said he wants to increase the size of the military, meaning that potentially bureaucracy and waste could grow, rather than be reduced. The history of efforts to tackle the ways of defense spending does not suggest that a positive outcome is likely.
Amy Zegart, a co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University says, “Forging change will be much, much harder than [Trump] expects.”
For some initiatives, such as those regarding climate change and immigration, Trump may be able to enact policies without working with Congress, through the use of executive orders. For example, Trump intends to cancel a protection program for illegal immigrants that was pushed hard by President Obama.
For other efforts — such as the repeal and replacement of Obamacare — Trump will need to work closely with Congress, and there will likely be a great deal of back-and-forth. Trump’s wall on the Southern border will need to get its funding from Congressional legislators — promises that Mexico would pay for it may not come to pass.
