Now that the Democrats have proven unable to stop Justice Neil Gorsuch from assuming the bench it is more than likely that President Trump will have at least one more chance to affect the future of the Supreme Court for years to come.
In Gorsuch, Trump was able to replace a fellow conservative, Justice Antonin Scalia, but the next justice to retire is sure to be either a progressive like Ruth Bader Ginsburg or a moderate like Justice Anthony Kennedy.
Justice Kennedy is the likeliest one to retire first and has been at the center of a number of important Supreme Court cases for more than a decade. Since he has tended to be the swing vote, replacing him with a true conservative would tip the court to the right, even if no other seat comes open during Trump’s first and perhaps only term. That is why team Trump has worked to keep every possible line of communication open with Kennedy as he ponders the possibility of retirement.
The Washington rumor mill has been abuzz that 80-year-old Kennedy is ready to step down from the bench with CNN reporting that the question does not appear to be if Kennedy will retire soon, but when. Friends of Justice Kennedy have hinted it will it be either this June or the next.
Replacing Reagan appointed Scalia with the like-minded 49-year-old Gorsuch was a powerful move but it may or may not change the direction of the court. But the political stakes are even higher with this next appointment. Kennedy is a centrist conservative, has cast key votes in favor of abortion rights, gay marriage, fair housing law, and affirmative action. Another justice like Gorsuch could shift the court back to where it hasn’t been in years.
Replacing Reagan appointed Scalia with the like-minded 49-year-old Gorsuch was a powerful move but it may or may not change the direction of the court. But the political stakes are even higher with this next appointment. Kennedy is a centrist conservative, has cast key votes in favor of abortion rights, gay marriage, fair housing law, and affirmative action. Another justice like Gorsuch could shift the court back to where it hasn’t been in years.
Bloomberg News reports, “Kennedy has given no public indication of his plans, but he has drawn attention with a handful of semi-private scheduling decisions. Perhaps most significantly, his next law clerk reunion will take place during the last weekend of June, offering the possibility that he will spring a piece of news on the gathering.
The timing is noteworthy because previous Kennedy reunions took place every five years, and this one comes four years after the 2013 event. In addition, it’s taking place at the end of June, just as the term concludes, rather than in mid-June like previous reunions.”
According to Newsweek, University of Georgia School of Law professor Lori Ringhand said “Republicans may be wary of defending an extremely conservative court nominee with the midterm congressional elections coming up in 2018 if another vacancy arises.
“It’s not clear it would be to the electoral advantage to Republicans to have a hotly contested Supreme Court nomination right before the midterms that highlighted a nominee’s extremely conservative positions on social issues that the majority of the public have actually accepted,” said Ringhand.”
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley says that he expects another resignation this summer. He told reporters, “I have no way of knowing who it is, it’s just a very general rumor for the last six months around Washington, DC and I assume it’s somebody in their late seventies or early eighties.”
This may be the most volatile period in the Supreme Court in many years. Liberal-leaning justices Ginsburg (84) and Stephen Breyer (78) are questionable for four more years.
It is more than possible for Ginsburg, who has serious health issues, to need to be replaced at the same time Kennedy is retiring. Now that filibuster is a dead issue, the GOP senate may soon get the chance to confirm not one but two justices in the mold of Scalia and Gorsuch.
That means Donald Trump may have appointed one-third of the Supreme Court by the end of his first four years. Reagan’s legacy was Scalia, but Trumps could well be the most conservative court in the modern era.
The one danger is that the GOP once again shadow boxes with Democrats and fails to seize the opportunity. John McCain and a few other senators have expressed a desire to not look political in who they confirm as justice with the elections of 2018 on the horizon.
But that is a dangerous gamble. If they lose the Senate, they would not be able to confirm anyone until at least 2020 with no guarantee a Republican remains in the White House. Many Trump supporters will have no patience with the party if that happens.
~ American Liberty Report
