In 2020, Hillary Clinton will be 73. Bernie Sanders will be 79. Elizabeth Warren will be 71. Nancy Pelosi will be 80. And Joe Biden will be 78. Democrats are starting to face the facts — the old guard of their party is becoming exactly how they’re described: old.
The party of the Left is in serious need of revitalization, and party insiders are casting about frantically for someone who can take the mantle of the party’s leadership and run with it and draw the kinds of presidential election crowds Bernie Sanders drew in 2016. Even if Bernie were to run again, the conventional wisdom is that he may well be unelectable due to his age. There’s also a strong generational disconnect between the millennial set and aging Baby Boomers that even progressive politics might not be able to conquer.
For the Democrats, the vote of younger Millennials is crucial to being able to swing key states blue. Whether the party wants to admit it or not, the “trust factor” is influenced by age; Millennials don’t necessarily want someone for president who looks like their parents (or their grandparents).
Among “second-tier” Democrats, some of the names being tossed around for 2020 include Kirsten Gillibrand (who will be 54 in 2020), Kamala Harris (who will be 56) and Cory Booker (who will be 51).
There’s also a growing sense that in the Republican Party, at least, the success of Donald Trump was at least partially due to the fact that he was a Washington outsider; he wasn’t perceived as tainted by corruption or indebted to special interests. He was able to establish a story about himself as someone who was at least partially self-made — a heroic myth that, while not quite 100-percent true, had enough sincere elements to work against someone who was utterly part of the political establishment like Hillary Clinton.
Enter a man named Mitch Landrieu, the current mayor of New Orleans. In 2020, Landrieu will be 60. But more importantly, he’s also a Washington outsider.
“I find him to be an incredibly fascinating political figure,” says Jamal Simmons, a noted Washington political analyst who appears on CNN, CBS, ABC and MSNBC. “When you think who the non-Washington figures in the Left are that ought to have a say in where we go — I think a lot of people would point to him.”
While Landrieu has fielded countless inquiries about his possible political ambitions, he’s repeatedly denied aiming for the presidency, claiming that he’s planning on focusing on his current job for the foreseeable future.
That may be so, but a speech he recently gave regarding the removal of Confederate monuments in his city set Democratic tongues wagging and gave him a buzz that some are comparing to what Barack Obama commanded when he was still a freshman Senator from Illinois. “To literally put the Confederacy on a pedestal in our most prominent places of honor is an inaccurate recitation of our full past; it is an affront to our present, and it is a bad prescription for our future,” recited Landrieu, who is white and Catholic.
Landrieu is also a former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana and the son of a well-known former mayor of New Orleans and Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Maurice “Moon” Landrieu. In addition, Landrieu’s sister Mary Landrieu served for nearly two decades as one of Louisiana’s two senators. Mitch Landrieu is an attorney and trained legal arbitrator who ran his own arbitration firm as well as serving on the Supreme Court Task Force on Alternative Dispute Resolution.
“[Landrieu’s speech on removing the monuments], which came after hearings, votes of the City Council and legal challenges to prevent it from happening, put him and anyone else involved in danger. But that didn’t stop him from doing it or speaking out,” wrote Jonathan Capehart, an editorial writer for the liberal news rag The Washington Post.
Ryan Berni, New Orleans’ Deputy Mayor of External Affairs, insisted that Landrieu’s speech “was never intended for a national audience,” but “was a way [for the city] to move forward” on particular issues of race. “It was genuine, and that’s why it was able to resonate beyond the local audience it was intended for here,” Berni said, adding “It’s always flattering to have your work recognized.”
While Landrieu coyly claims not to have grander political ambitions, the people who surround him don’t believe this is true. Said one Landrieu associate, “He’s always been looked upon as the one in the family who would go the farthest. And I think he has those political aspirations.” Bernie Pinsonat, a Louisiana pollster who is familiar with Landrieu, said that if the right political opportunity presented itself, “[Landrieu] will definitely see how deep the water is… I can’t imagine he’d say no if there are people willing to invest in him.”
Adam Sharp, a Democratic Party strategist who worked for Landrieu’s senator sister, said that the last two presidential primaries have “illustrated the expanding economic and racial fault lines in the party. Having won statewide in a deep red state and citywide among a predominantly black, Democratic electorate, [Landrieu] has some track record in bridging these divides. There may be more paths open for him nationally than there are statewide right now.”
Still, among Democrats, Elizabeth Warren is a mighty fundraiser who has broader name recognition in the party. Sanders hasn’t ruled out running again in 2020, although, to be sure there are many in the party who would likely discourage it and/or not back him. Joe Biden lately has been prominently appearing in the media, but negative stories about his family have saddled him with baggage that may not be palatable for voters. And Hillary Clinton is a perennial contender, but it’s likely her extremely high unfavorability ratings combined with her previous high-profile losses that are insurmountable deal-breakers for voters.
But some among the Louisiana Democratic cognoscenti believe it could also be an uphill battle for Landrieu in 2020. Ed Chervenak, professor of political science at the University of New Orleans, says that despite Landrieu’s “[turning] the city around and [moving] it forward,” the prospect of a presidential bid seems like a long shot. “It’s hard to see the leap from mayor,” he said. But analyst Jamal Simmons disagrees, believing that outlook is outdated. “Normally, you’d say you can’t be mayor and run for president, but these aren’t normal times,” said Simmons.
To be sure, it’s still early days to be thinking about the next presidential election, but by the time 2018 rolls around, the 2020 picture will be looking clearer, and the country will likely know if Landrieu has a real shot or not. Of course, another factor that may not have been considered thus far is that Louisiana’s reputation for being a peerless example of political integrity is nonexistent at best, and so, even if Landrieu himself is untainted by corruption, whether the same can be said for those surrounding him is questionable.
And if any lessons can be learned from Landrieu’s predecessor, Democratic former New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, they might be: try not to appear in too many pictures with Hillary Clinton if you think there’s a chance that you might wind up in jail (Nagin’s assigned residence until 2023 at the earliest).
