CNN reported in June that national poll numbers showed that President Trump’s chance of winning a second term was unlikely if not impossible.
Citing a national poll from Gallup, CNN’s Harry Einstein wrote, “The average president has seen his approval rating shift by just 3 points from now until the election. That would only get Trump into the mid-40s at best.”
But there are a few problems with the mainstream media’s rush to count President Trump out. The election is in November, not June, and Democrats are making the same mistake they did in 2016.
Rasmussen, the only daily Presidential tracking poll, showed in its latest reports published the first of August that things have changed a lot in a couple of months. Rasmussen found that 51% of likely U.S. voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.
That means Trump’s approval rating is 7 points better than Barack Obama’s are the same point in the term. That’s context the media never provides when detailing how Trump is doing.
Though Newsweek uses the same polling data as CNN, reporter James Walker wrote on August 10th, “President Donald Trump’s approval rating is slowly increasing with a little less than three months to go until election day, despite the continued spread of coronavirus and steep unemployment across the country.”
The CNN report titled “History says Trump’s low approval rating is unlikely to move” is a study in the effects of Trump Derangement Syndrome. How else can a national news source have a title like that and then disprove its own premise in three short paragraphs?
CNN’s Einstein acknowledged that there is plenty of time between June and November for things to change, and Presidential races often do. However, in a show of confused logic, Einstein wrote, “Presidential approval ratings, however, haven’t historically moved much from June of an election year to Election Day.”
Using historical data from Gallup and the Office of Public Opinion Research, CNN showed that of the 13 presidents who have run for reelection, the average president has seen his approval rating shift by just 3 points from now until the election.
In a September 2019 article, Newsweek’s Jessica Kwong wrote, “Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Surpasses Obama’s, Not Just on Rasmussen Reports.” Kwong wrote, “When that report came out, Trump tweeted an image of himself with “50% APPROVAL RATING” attributed to the “conservative” Rasmussen Reports.
Imagine either CNN or Newsweek reporting that according to “liberal” polls, Barack Obama rates higher than Trump.
A guest from The Political insider told Newsweek then that “the highly respected Rasmussen poll revealed that the president is actually at his highest point in two years” and that “perhaps even more significant,” Trump had topped Obama.
Some pundits argue that Trump isn’t running against Barack Obama. But even the progressive-leaning Washington Post knows better. In her article titled, “Obama serves as validator in chief for Biden’s policies and capacity to be president,” Annie Linskey noted the hope to turn, “The still-popular Obama into the validator for Biden’s policy prescriptions, his leadership, and his capacity to be president, even at the risk of giving President Trump a target around which to rally his supporters.”
But was Obama really that popular as his second term wound down? A comparison of the polls shows otherwise.