The world was shocked by Brexit. Then it was stunned by Trump. Across the west, political change is happening dramatically and quickly. At the root of it all are conservative populist candidates. Just how much will they change the foreseeable future? Let’s look at the trends of this movement and the motivations behind it.
Populist Momentum
Before jumping into talk of populists and left vs right politics, we should make a few things clear. First of all, populist vs centralist politics are completely distinct from conservatism vs liberalism. A politician or government can be any combination of the four.
Here are a few classic examples: Right after the end of WWII, the major populist movements internationally were for socialist and communist governments. These were leftist populist movements. On the other hand, the American Revolution, followed by a storm of revolutions across Europe in the 19th century were all conservative populist movements.
In modern politics, these definitions are easy. Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush represented the centralists of the U.S., on the left and right respectively. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were the populist representatives of each side. You can easily see how fundamentally different populists can be, but the one factor they have in common is a distrust of the current government and a strong desire to change the status quo.
Sanders wanted to strengthen the central government to overturn the status quo (a dangerous tactic that, historically, has always led to communist totalitarian governments) while Trump simply wants to remove entrenched career politicians and party insiders to make way for larger and faster reform. Internationally, things are as convoluted as you might expect, but focusing on Western Europe and North America makes the topic much easier to handle.
Recent Upheaval
You already know that Trump’s victory surprised everyone who didn’t plan to vote for him all along. You also know that Brexit was a big surprise and major turning point. While these are the most prominent examples, elections and votes have been swiftly leaning towards populists in many places.
Very recently, the Italian people voted against the recommendation of their Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. In that vote, they overturned a referendum that would reduce the power of representatives and push it in the direction of the Prime Minister and EU. Considering the longstanding economic and political problems that have plagued 21st Century Italy, a massive distrust of central government is unsurprising.
The case in Austria peels eyes much wider. Norbert Hofer is the right-populist representative who just ran for president. He didn’t win. That was the predictable outcome, considering that Austria is one of the largest proponents of the EU and centralization in general. The shock comes from the fact that Hofer won 46 percent of the popular vote. Just five years ago populists could not muster a full third of the vote in Austria, and now they are narrowly losing elections. If Austria follows trends that are erupting across the West, their next president may represent as radical an upheaval as Trump is bringing to the U.S.
Stakes for 2017
In the next year, major members of the EU will hold a number of important elections. Germany, France and the Netherlands are all voting on new central leaders (presidents or prime ministers). The Dutch elections hold less sway than the other two, but turmoil is the name of the game in the early polls.
In Germany, Angela Merkel will face the consequences of her devout centralist policies. It’s still way too early to call, but her biggest threats come from populist opposition.
In France, Marine Le Pen has pulled a strong early lead. She is the most extreme populist candidate in Western Europe at the moment, and many are saying that her election could herald the death of the EU. In all, populism is no longer the redheaded stepchild of Western politics. It is gaining near unstoppable steam, the bulk of the world powers could look a lot more like Trump’s America by the end of next year.
What it Means
So, what’s the point? The EU has contained the bulk of America’s trading and military alliances and partners, so major changes there hold large consequences over here.
The lessons we can clearly glean at this point is that the world is unhappy with the state of global economics and intervention policy. Almost all of the trending upset elections are hinging on voters who are fed up with trade policies and corrupt governments that favor corporations over workers and foreign well-being over domestic.
If the trends hold, the world just may reshape itself into something that strongly favors Trump’s goals. Without the combined negotiating power of a unified EU, there are few political or economic forces that could threaten Trump’s new policies. Things are lining up nearly perfectly for him, so it will be interesting, to say the least, to watch how it all unfolds.
~ American Liberty Report
