Trump May Not Implement Total Immigration Reform

In 2012, President Barack Obama announced an immigration policy known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival (DACA) whereby illegal immigrants who claimed they were brought into the United States as children would not be repatriated to their home countries.

In fact, these immigrants would not be deported from the United States at all; in most cases, the U.S. will give them work permits allowing them to take jobs that were urgently needed by people who had been thrown out of the job market by the financial crisis of 2008. As such, these people form a core part of the nation’s “cheap labor” backbone that must be broken if real wages are to rise.

One of new President Donald Trump’s key promises he made during his extensive campaign was to cancel all of former President Obama’s illegal executive orders related to immigration and amnesty. This was one of the reasons why Trump was able to destroy the Midwestern base of support Democrats had formerly enjoyed on Election Day.

In Trump’s inauguration address, he promised the country that “we will follow two simple rules: buy American and hire American.” If only it were that simple.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has printed as many as 750,000 work permits for these illegal migrants that are valid for two years. But current policy is to renew permits as they expire and hand out new ones to any new applicants.

Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) organization says that “[This] is an explicit betrayal of a promise that [Trump] made — point number five in his Phoenix speech [on immigration policy]. That’s a red line [Trump officials] have crossed less than three days into their administration.”

Krikorian said that as soon as Trump won the election in November, he could have quietly told DHS to stop issuing the permits. “That’s all it would have taken,” said Krikorian. That would have allowed the number of active permits in circulation to taper down gradually without a knee-jerk response from opponents that surely would have come if Trump had announced an order to immediately rescind all of the permits in circulation.

But the lack of action so far from Trump’s officials may be indicative that big business-focused Republicans such as the president’s Chief of Staff Reince Priebus are having more sway over the president than had previously been expected. CIS’ Krikorian says this may mean Trump is willing to give up some bargaining power in order to get other legislative priorities accomplished.

For instance, Trump could have threatened to cancel all outstanding DACA work permits until his border wall was fully funded by Congress, or he could have mandated that employers verify that all their employees have the legal right to work in the U.S. Trump could also end the practice of giving out Green Cards to all members of an immigrant’s extended family.

And currently, there’s a program known as the “Diversity Lottery,” whereby 50,000 immigrants come into the country legally every year regardless of their skills or education. Trump could threaten to put a stop to this as well, as a bargaining chip. “I’m for giving Green Cards to the DACA [illegals], but we have to get something back [via a negotiation with Congress],” said Krikorian.

Making a deal over DACA would allow Trump to have leverage in a bigger exchange that could limit legal immigration. Trump promised in August of last year to cut the rate of legal newcomers to the U.S., which is at historically high levels, down to amounts seen in past decades.

Right now, the federal government gives Green Cards to about one million immigrants annually and invites about the same number of foreign contract workers to remain in the U.S. for as long as seven years. This policy means the annual supply of new labor in the marketplace is approximately 50 percent higher than it otherwise would be, which is responsible for sharply depressed wages and salaries for many young Americans entering the workforce for the first time.

The truth is that Congressional Republicans may be willing to support Trump’s wall, but many don’t want to see the inflow of cheap immigrant labor cut in a meaningful way. These immigrants not only represent inexpensive labor for many companies, but other businesses such as property developers, retailers and restaurants also see them as customers. This flow of immigrants into both blue-collar and white-collar positions represents a transfer of as much as $500 billion from wages into corporate profits every year.

The fact that Trump hasn’t taken action on DACA is indicative that Priebus and his allies such as Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan could be taking advantage of Trump to make a deal for his vaunted border wall that would install it as a symbol but prevent it from having much effect on cheap illegal labor.

Left-wing blogger Mickey Kaus — who’s one Democrat who actually supports immigration reform — recently tweeted about Trump’s lack of action, writing, “So Obama created ‘facts on ground’ re: DACA decree. Trump scared 2 pull trigger 2 reverse. Weak negotiating position!”

In statements to the press, Speaker Ryan has only said that Trump has asked him about funding the border wall. But in January, Ryan clarified that he’s seeking an amnesty-style immigration policy that would give immigrants higher wages and more training.

“I think you have to have reforms that get people to come out of the shadows and get right with the law and get — and make sure that while you’re securing the border, you’re fixing what’s broken in the legal immigration system,” said Ryan. “I think we need to have an immigration system that’s wired for what our economy needs… I think we should give visas based on what the economy needs.”

CIS’ Krikorian believes that Ryan and Priebus could try to push Trump into a “cheap-labor-forever” bargain that would derail Trump’s promises to the American people. Krikorian foresees a deal made by a “Group of Eight” similar to the failed 2013 “Gang of Eight” Congressional immigration reform attempt.

“My fear [for 2017 is that] maybe [Trump] will formally amnesty the DACA [illegals] in exchange for nothing [from Congress], or in exchange for some phony border bill that he doesn’t need because the president has all the authority to do all the fencing or the wall on the border. I’m afraid they’re going to use that [bad deal] as an excuse [for abandoning immigration labor reform, saying] ‘We’ve passed this border bill in exchange for giving Green Cards to the DACA [illegals], and now we’re moving on to the next thing.”

Reince Priebus has already acknowledged that he seeks some sort of cheap-labor compromise. “I think we’re going to work with the House and Senate leadership, as well as get a long-term solution on that issue,” Priebus stated on Fox News Sunday.

For his part, White House spokesperson Sean Spicer was evasive when asked about the topic. “I think the president has been clear that he’s going to prioritize the areas of dealing with the immigration system, both building the wall and making sure that we address people who are in this country illegally,” Spicer said.

“First and foremost, the president’s been very, very clear that we need to direct agencies to focus on those who are in this country illegally and have a record — a criminal record or pose a threat to the American people. That’s where the priority is going to be.”

But all GOP party members involved (and even the Democrats) are sensitive to bipartisan pushback from voters on the issues of cheap legal and illegal immigrant labor. In December of last year, House Speaker Ryan killed a legislative provision he supported that would have outsourced an additional 198,000 blue-collar jobs to low-paid foreign workers under an “H-2B visa guest worker program.”

Conservatives who care about this issue would do well to write or call their Congressperson or Senator to let them know how they feel about it.


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