One of the most anticipated yields of the new Trump administration is the federal budget, and while the finished request document is expected to be sent to Congress sometime in mid-March, the administration has begun asking federal agencies to detail their spending plans for the upcoming fiscal year.
The finished budget proposal is expected to include sharp increases for the military — including in the areas of shipbuilding, aircraft orders and protecting waterways such as the South China Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Trump recently promised conservatives “one of the greatest military buildups in American history.”
Meanwhile, other domestic departments such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the State Department are anticipated to experience major cuts in the tens of billions of dollars. The State Department alone could see 30 percent of its budget slashed, which would necessitate the elimination of a multitude of programs.
At the same time, Trump has said he would like to leave major government benefit programs such as Medicare and Social Security alone (other entitlement programs, however, may be subject to decreases).
Normally, budget proposals are little scrutinized by the public or the press prior to their approval by Congress, but the Trump administration wishes to make a big splash with its plans, according to those familiar with the initiative.
Thus far, the proposed budget is a collaboration between White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Mick Mulvaney and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn.
Trump’s advisors are determined to show that Trump is a man of his word and desires to keep all his promises related to the federal budget. Jason Miller, a top strategist for the Trump campaign, says, “They might not agree with everything you do, but people will respect you for doing what you said you were going to do… He’s doing something first, and there’s time for talk later. This is ultimately how he’s going to get people who didn’t vote, or people who didn’t vote for him, into the fold. Inside the Beltway and with the media, there’s this focus on palace intrigue. [But] out in the rest of the country, they’re seeing a guy who is focused on jobs and the economy.”
While Trump has issued numerous executive orders — mostly related to immigration and business deregulation — in his first 40 days in office, the budget proposal is really “where the rubber hits the road,” according to Washington insiders.
It’s highly likely that Trump’s proposed budget will be substantially altered by Congress prior to it getting approved. Federal departments like the EPA and the State Department will definitely oppose the deep cuts suggested by the administration.
And that’s to say nothing of vehement opposition from Democrats, who are albeit in a minority in both houses of Congress. In both parties, some legislators have complained that Trump’s big promises to the public haven’t been matched by detailed policy recommendations or a veteran legislative affairs team capable of accomplishing big initiatives such as replacing Obamacare or rewriting the nation’s tax code.
Just the same, Congress will have the last word on the budget, so it’s critical that the administration gets at least Republican lawmakers on board with its proposals. The White House is well aware that despite vigorous action so far, it’s struggling as far as approval ratings from the public, so it’s important that partisan gridlock in Congress doesn’t drag the budget approval process out inordinately and/or water down many of the policies Trump has been trying to push.
One potential issue with Congress could be overall spending, because the 2011 Budget Control Act sets firm limits as to how much the government is allowed to spend without producing significant new debts. But additional money for the military will probably require lawmakers to raise or eliminate spending caps in order to deliver much of what the administration is proposing defense-wise.
In putting together its proposal, the White House is assuming a healthy economic growth rate for the U.S. of 2.4 percent annually. This is slightly above most analysts’ projections, but isn’t as high as the 3 or 4 percent promised by Trump during his presidential campaign.
Some observers have noted that while the administration’s anticipated budget may be controversial, Trump actually has had relatively smooth sailing during his first 40 days in office (besides what some are arguing is “Deep State” meddling with some of his nominees for major Cabinet positions).
There are no current international crises taking Trump’s attention away from domestic issues, and Republicans hold a majority in two out of the three branches of government (soon likely to be three if Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch is confirmed).
Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who is now the mayor of the crime-ridden city of Chicago, cynically complained that Trump was attempting to create a “sense of urgency, which most people aren’t feeling right now” in order to shore up support for anticipated economic agenda items such as spending on national infrastructure and effecting tax cuts.
At the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Trump Counselor Kellyanne Conway referred to Trump as “President Action, President Impact” in an effort to drive home the message that Trump is not obsessed with the “empty talk” of former presidents that he derided in his inaugural address.
Stephen Miller, the president’s best-known policy advisor, has repeatedly said that Trump accomplished more in the first month of his administration than many presidents accomplish in their entire terms in office. “During his first month in office, President Trump has done exactly what he said he was going to do,” said Thomas Barrack, a personal friend of Trump’s who ran the president’s inaugural committee.
“No president has worked harder or accomplished as much, even with tremendous political resistance forcing him to operate with a small team of outsiders possessing little government experience.”
Democrats, however, took issue with Miller’s and Barrack’s statements. “This man is not a doer… Oh, please. He has nothing to show for what he’s been doing in office for 40 days. It’s all been squandered,” claimed Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
But the proof of Trump’s promises will likely lie in the document that will be staring Congress in the face come mid-March. And the White House’s taste for partisan deal-making will almost certainly be tested shortly thereafter.
