The 2018 midterm election was not a “blue wave” as the mainstream media predicted it would be by any stretch of the imagination. Nevertheless, Democrats did manage to take control of the House of Representatives, meaning that we will soon have a Democrat as the Speaker of the House.
Who it will be, though, is still very much up in the air, and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not the embattled frontrunner Nancy Pelosi will be able to draw enough support from her party to reclaim her former position.
Today, Nancy Pelosi has become a polarizing figure in the Democratic Party. While many Democrats still see her as an experienced, long-time colleague, other, newer Democrats feel as if it’s time to pass the torch to someone else. There’s also concern within the party that Nancy Pelosi may end up being a gift to Republicans rather than a thorn in their side.
Soon after Democrats took control of the House, President Trump voiced his support for Nancy Pelosi to become Speaker. Given that Pelosi has been one of Trump’s most vocal critics, many theorized that Trump is supporting her so that he will have someone he can reliably attack heading into 2020.
It’s not a far-fetched idea, since Pelosi has certainly given Republicans plenty of ammunition so far, with comments such as calling the money Americans got back from the GOP tax cuts “crumbs” and saying that illegal immigration could be solved if we mowed the grass at the border making for priceless fodder in GOP attack ads.
Rather than provide Trump and the GOP with even more ammunition by putting Pelosi in a position that is far more public and far more scrutinized, many in the Democratic party would rather choose a Speaker who is less controversial and less prone to making embarrassing mistakes.
Right now, there are 18 anti-Pelosi Democrats in the House. Given that Democrats hold just a 34 seat advantage in the House, Pelosi cannot afford to have any more than a handful of Democrats vote against her if she hopes to become Speaker.
Nevertheless, there are also signs that the anti-Pelosi movement in the House may be breaking up. Pelosi has been feverishly meeting with prominent Democrats in the House ever since her party took control of the chamber, essentially campaigning for the position of Speaker.
Since this campaign began, several anti-Pelosi Democrats have become a little cagey when asked whether or not they intend to vote for Pelosi if she is nominated. It’s likely that these anti-Pelosi Democrats are facing stiff pressure from the higher-ups in the party, and many of them might end up caving.
Rep.-elect Mikie Sherrill ran on a campaign that opposed Pelosi, saying that it was time for “new leadership, and it starts at the top.” After meeting with Pelosi, though, Sherrill refused to answer questions from the media about whether she would still oppose Pelosi as Speaker.
Other anti-Pelosi Democrats are now saying that they are undecided, while others dodge questions on the issue altogether. It’s easy enough to oppose Pelosi from afar, but once these new Democrats are waist deep in the Washington swamp – a swamp that Nancy Pelosi still largely controls – opposing her becomes much more difficult.
There’s also the off chance that, if enough Democrats do oppose Pelosi, that she might pick up enough support from Republicans to still become Speaker. After all, Trump has already voiced his support for Pelosi to become Speaker. Given that a Democratic Speaker of the House is unavoidable, Republicans may very well choose to elect an enemy that they know and are used to dealing with rather than someone new and unpredictable.
This possibility remains somewhat unlikely since Republicans in the House would be hard-pressed to vote “yes” on someone that their constituents despise no matter what the reason is. Nevertheless, if President Trump is determined to make Pelosi speaker in order to set himself and the party up for 2020, it’s possible that he could convince enough Republicans to support her.
All of this is to say that it has become very likely that Nancy Pelosi will indeed become the next Speaker of the House. Thankfully, given Pelosi’s long history of blunders, missteps, and general incompetence, that might end up being the best case scenario for President Trump and the Republican Party.
