It’s a midterm year, and we’re just past half way to November. The historical trend is for Congress to flip very blue this fall. Typically, after a president enjoys a double Congressional majority of his own party, the nation responds by going the other direction. Experts have been predicting for that trend to continue this year, but over the last six months, all certainty has waned. A good look at June polls paints an interesting picture.
One of the challenges of looking past polls is getting through the bias. You all remember how wrong all of the mainstream polls were in the last presidential election. Today, we’re going to get around that by focusing on one poll in particular. The Harvard-Harris poll is done every month, and it looks to be one of the most objective queries out there. Let’s get to the numbers.
The biggest number is Trump’s overall approval rating. This poll has it at 47 percent currently. Historically, this puts him in the middle of the pack for modern presidents in their second year, but it’s a two-point increase from last month. That’s fast growth. It’s also identical to Obama at this point in his first term. That said, the overall approval rating underestimates Trump’s overall success.
When it comes to the economy, 69-percent of the country views it favorably. This is a better number than Obama ever saw. It’s also the primary reason Trump was elected, which means he’s winning where it counts the most. More specifically, 68 percent of Americans say their personal finances are improving, and 57 percent of respondents think Trump is why the economy is good.
Immigration and foreign policy aren’t quite as good. Only 46 percent of the country approves of Trump on immigration, but a smaller number disapproves. That said, when the survey asked specific questions about policy, the average favorability for any given question was right at 70 percent. And, this average is dragged down by a fairly universal disapproval of child separation.
Conversely, 75 percent approve of how Trump has handled North Korea. This is a huge turnaround. At this point last summer, the majority of the country disapproved of Trump’s involvement with North Korea. This topic alone could push everyone on the fence into his camp. As for terrorism, he’s winning there too with a 57-percent approval rating.
Lastly, the poll looked at the Mueller/Russia situation. Overall, 60 percent of Americans think that it is hurting the country and want to see it concluded quickly. The left’s only platform issue right now is impeaching Trump through that investigation. It seems the people are not aligning with the Democrats on this one.
This is huge progress in the polls, and with any momentum, it could lead to a red tide in November. There’s still plenty of time for people to change their minds before that, but it’s getting harder to picture that scenario. Trump has faced a relentless media barrage from day one. It has never subsided.
Despite that, he has won the approval of a plurality of Americans. More importantly, a majority approve of him when it comes to policy and results. In the face of incessant media lies, Trump has proven himself through results, and the country is learning to trust their president.
In the end, what we all care about are the election results in November. Will the Republicans keep their majorities or lose ground? Right now, despite Trump’s growing success, the Democrats still hold an edge for Congressional favorability. However, that edge has shrunk from over 60 percent in January to barely over 50 percent today.
The one trend we can see is that the far left and their media cronies are losing influence. As things stand, the Republicans will hold the majority of voters by November. But, and this is a big but, they will only do so if they can avoid shooting themselves in the foot before then. The media’s opinion doesn’t matter, but Republicans in Congress have burned this country before, and they’re fully capable of doing it again.
If the tide does run red, though, it will be monumental. Trump gets to choose his second Supreme Court Justice. He’s also working hard to campaign for Republicans who can help his agenda. If he gets the chance to work with a double majority and a reasonable Supreme Court, his ability to make America great will accelerate. Instead of a booming economy and improving global standing, we could witness the beginning of a new golden age for the U.S. That can only happen if we get to the polls.
~ American Liberty Report
