I’ve been making election predictions professionally for close to 30 years now, and in all that time, there are only a handful of races I’ve gotten wrong. All of those were House races in states where I was unable to ascertain a certain X-factor in the race. I’ve never called a presidential race incorrectly, dating back to when I predicted George HW Bush’s defeat by Bill Clinton in 1992. That’s because I sometimes analyze quirky, politically incorrect factors that the mainstream media won’t dare touch with a 10-foot pole. And right now I’m telling y’all: CALM DOWN. As long as you do YOUR part in November, President Donald J. Trump has got this.
If you missed my earlier analysis on this, you might want to go back and read that as well. I discuss some insider knowledge I have on what’s wrong with most of the polling outlets (they’re financially broke and panicking); how the Biden-Harris ticket’s assault on religious liberty has even the Amish spooked enough to endorse a presidential candidate (Trump) for the first time in 242 years; and how Democrat voters switching parties has Silicon Valley reacting (by dropping a nuclear Nadler in their blue jeans).
Here’s some more of my not-so-scientific analysis that is better than anything you’ll find on any news channel for the next few weeks.
What Black Women Voters Really Think about Carmella Harris
The media doesn’t understand the first thing about the “black community” in America. They just don’t. They might as well be talking about Martians. Even black news anchors like Joy Reid and Gayle King (such phonies) don’t know what they’re talking about. The “black vote” in 2020 is really a wild card right now and it’s a total mystery to the media.
Here’s a tip that I used to share when I was training reporters at ABC News years ago: If you want to know what any minority community is really thinking on any issue, go get your hair cut in their neighborhood tomorrow. This totally works.
For the past couple of decades that I’ve been doing my quirky election prognostications, I always make it a point – no matter what city I’m living in – to drive over to the most urban part of town and get my hair cut at the same salon where all the middle- and working-class black ladies get their hair and nails so fabulously done.
Little old pasty-white, Vanilla Ice Viking, Christian, patriarchal moí? Yep.
I highly recommend it. It’s more fun than a dwarf-tossing contest at Kid Rock’s house on the Fourth of July. (Now there’s an election story I’m going to have to share with everyone someday.) You will be invisible for the 20 or 30 minutes that it takes you to get a trim or a touch-up. Just shut up and listen, and you will get the most honest, direct and unfiltered opinions from the black community that you could possibly imagine – and these will be real-life opinions that you will never hear on CNN or Fox News. It’s like being at a Diamond & Silk family reunion, only louder.
So, after my haircut last week, I have some fresh perspective on the 2020 election. First of all, the black community feels that Joe Biden really blew it with his VP pick. Working- and middle-class black women despise Kamala Harris. They all mispronounce her name as “Carmella” Harris (because she’s caramel-colored, i.e. not really black).
And there’s another really important fact to consider, so long as I’m being wildly politically incorrect here. Women voters – and especially black women voters – are incredibly empathetic voters. That’s not a criticism. It’s just a fact. Men tend to vote more on economic concerns, while women are more likely to project themselves into the shoes of another woman when considering who to vote for. That’s not a good thing or a bad thing and I’m not judging – it just IS.
Barack Obama enjoyed record-high black voter turnout in 2008 and 2012. I predicted his victory in both of those elections, by the way. Part of the reason why he enjoyed such high support from the black community was because the black female voter turnout was incredibly high. They were not voting for Barack Obama; they were voting for Michelle.
The reason why black women voted for Barack Obama was because they could picture themselves in MICHELLE Obama’s shoes.
Black women voted for Barack Obama in record numbers because they were able to live vicariously through Michelle Obama. Being First Lady sounds like a pretty good gig when you think about it from their perspective. Put your feet up most of the time. Let the man bring home the bacon. Get dolled up for swanky events with all the celebrities and world leaders. Get your picture on all the magazine covers (as long as you’re a Democrat First Lady). People serving and waiting on you hand and foot, 24/7. Beats the hell out of stocking Joe Biden’s grocery store shelves.
So, what are the black ladies in the hair salon saying – honestly and unfiltered – when they look at “Carmella” Harris? Whose “shoes” are they projecting themselves into?
Brace yourself.
Mrs. Willie Brown.
When black women look at Kamala Harris, they see a light-skinned, aggressive, not-really-black vamp who would make a move on their own husbands, boyfriends or significant others.
They’re not empathizing with Kamala Harris, who they see as a gold-digging opportunist who will sell her body to get ahead. Black women voters are empathizing with the pain that California State Assembly Speaker Willie Brown’s wife went through, when he was buying Kamala Harris a BMW, appointing her to state boards with six-figure salaries, and parading Harris around in a dog collar at orgies with Hollywood producers (according to the Crazy Days and Nights blog which supposedly has the pictures).
A few weeks ago when Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate, I said that Trump had dodged a bullet. If Biden had picked Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Val Deming or even human parade float Stacey Abrams, Trump might have been in trouble. But Biden picked the absolute worst possible choice that he could have made in selecting a “black female” running mate. Black women voters don’t consider Kamala Harris to be a member of their community. They know that Kamala Harris herself never identified as a “black” woman until she decided to run for president last year.
I am not suggesting that Trump is going to enjoy some landslide support among the black community in November. He’s not. If Trump pulls as much as 12% of the black vote, it will be a record-breaking triumph, like no Republican candidate has enjoyed since Eisenhower.
But I think that one of the big surprises among all the experts is going to be the tepid black voter turnout that results from “Carmella” being on the Democrat ticket. The overall black voter turnout is going to be surprisingly low, because many black female voters are simply not going to show up on Election Day. It literally causes them emotional pain to think about Kamala Harris in the White House, because they see Harris for what she really is.
Great, and I believe correct, insight!
I look at the bigger picture. TRUMP TRAIN 2020.
No Retreat, No Surrender.
I wish someone would get their hands on the dog collar photos
Oh me to!!!!
Spot on She is a full fledged skank
Biden and Harris are the finger blame pointing party. Trump and pence are the problem solving pro active party.
I believe that Trump will also win because the alternative is quiet frightening. Harris is a fake black woman. I don’t think she ever had to experience what real black women have gone thru. I am white, but I am also 65 and have seen a lot in my time.
Why on earth would you want Donald Trump for president?
I hate being lied too
Today is October 11th,& it’s 9:49 pm WTH
Great research methodology. Believe you have nailed it.
She didn’t help herself with the debate PERFORMANCE. Phony pass around piece is how she came off. topped off with that moose sized facemask her husband popped up with at the end. Normal size would have been fine. On with the show.
Oh yes she is a gold digging person that thinks just for herself and how far she can take it. She is a cheater and would steal your man in a minute.
I think she’s to ugly to steal anyone’s man. Have you seen her parents, they are white than I am.
What proof do you have to make that statement? Kinda rude, don’t you think!
Excellent article! I’m very relieved..
Your discussion rings so true. And Harris supports rioting. The BLM destroyed the businesses of many races. BLM is very guilty of the “bigotry of low performance“ Racism in believing that only white people are smart enough to own businesses. They have no idea if the diversity that they have destroyed.
Great article! Echoes most of my own logic about the black vote this year. I don’t bask in the fame of Nate Silver, but I have successfully predicted every presidential race since 1968 (all documented plus a story in the San Jose Mercury, 1980) until I missed 2016 – only because I thought the Democrats would STEAL it from Trump. Which they almost did (remember Florida on election night – long story)!! Now here is where I will add to your analysis: very true about the black non-vote! Anyone who stayed up last time and saw the last 10% of precincts pouring into Michigan (from Detroit) KNEW they were AWOL and that Trump would hold his slim lead there. Similar abstentions occurred in 1988 when Bush Sr. landslided Dukakis. To be sure, a turning off of the female black voter is a sure sign this time. However, there is an additional factor: Black males are defecting from the Dems in droves and not going fishing but migrating to Trump! Some polls suggest 50/50. A bit inflated likely. But I am willing to double your 12% to about 25%. Oh, and what about the shifting Latino vote?? We don’t even need to tread there right now! Yes, the stats we see here (between the two of us) are enough to spell doom for the Jacksonian party of slavery, which has not changed and hardly evolved in nearly two centuries of its existence. And I’m loving that so many black loyalists are now seeing their mentors for the “party of privilege” that they are. There is a variety of reasons, yes, but never underestimate the Trump factor. No wonder the elite hates him! I’m sure you’ve heard of my book, and I recently put out an article entitled “Counter-Revolution and Restoral,” about our current extended (civil) war and the British connection (then and now), which I’d be happy to send you by email. Thanks again for this article, which assures me I’m not the only one that senses the barber “shop” talk.
Well,I am glad for you on your 30 year victory. However this one is just to hard to factor your logic. There is much more at stake than black women voters. The far left has way to many young voters who are so used to all the free be s that have been given to them. Our educators are also far to liberal and do not really teach their students about early American history . That alone hurts these kids on not knowing enough as to what the Constitution is really about vs what the Bill Of Rights are. In fact most Americans don’t know the difference between the two. We have been hood winked by the US Attorney General as well as the new FBI director. They seem to be afraid to bring justice to those who have really torn this country apart. I doubt they will bring any of the deep state to any Grand Jury because they are so afraid of what would happen to them if they did. President Donald Trump was elected by we the middle class working voters to bring the swamp to its knees. That can’t happen even he is disappointed. I certainly believe the President is as good as his advisors and his are not very good. In the beginning there were far too many leakers and once they were fired most of them turned out to have been from the previous administration. Let’s just pray to God that the Republicans turn out in droves so those mail in votes won’t even be needed. My thoughts are the virus has beat us all.
As a white (Irish) woman who grew up in the most multicultural home and church, just want to say, YOU NAILED IT!
As a white (Irish) woman who grew up in the most multicultural home and church, just got to say,
YOU NAILED IT!
Isn’t it interesting that Kamala had an affair with the married Mayor of San Francisco to launch her political career and Joe had an affair with a married woman who later became his wife. How inspiring.
Great article!! I’m not even the slightest fan of Kamala Harris and I thought you got it all right in your article! I think that the black women that you wrote about really have it down pat and know exactly why they’re not voting for Kamala Harris! I wouldn’t vote for her either, were I an American!
Wonderful article !!!!
Americans need to realize that she will be president within a year. If you want to continue to prosper, vote TRUMP 2020.
Amen, the 25th amendment Pelosi was talking about is for Biden not Trump.
Not on your life – or theirs either. Re-read what she wrote and listen to what she said. She said this wasnt written for Trump, but it will work for any president that the little group of communists decide to use it against. Think about who’s on their committee. Past presidents (obama, bush. Clinton) and we already know where they stand. Is this another attempt at the coup? Who do you think they will put in? And who is foolish enough to become one of their scapegoats? Only those who either can play the game better then them or those who want a minute of fame?
It was really nice for you to bring up her legs up and knees on the floor to decribe her rise into politics. Mr Brown said she had the suction of a Kirby, but now this concurs what we had heard. If you want Kakala Toe as your next President then vote for Harris/Biden, because they are going to use Joeys name to get there and then KICK him to the curb
Like your the high points and the issues facing Black Women. You gave a good picture of Harris and how she achieves to the top. Harris is a user! Very good article and I am in agreement with the better choices Biden could had made, except one and that is Stacey Adams … had she handled her own political race
better she may have gotten the prize. Harris seems to be cunning and not real with the issues … she is a real fake!
ALL factors need to be considered and explored. The Black IS a part of the bigger picture, because it’s a valuable demographic that could make or break a candidate’s future, and election, ESPECIALLY with all that’s been going on for the past eight months. While I’m definitely a MAGA Trumpster, I never make comments like “landslide”, because it’s simply too dangerous a statement to make. Yes, I do believe that Trump can and will will win, but I also know that the Dems will exhaust every single effort to cheat, interfere and throw the election in a tailspin that could, realistically, cause him a loss. It’s called pragmatism and not counting your chickens before they hatch, that’s all. It also the reason I don’t put my Trump Women sticker on my car, nor an NRA sticker. I fear eating my words and his EVENTUAL loss (after 90 of fake ballots coming in) but I also don’t want to have my daughter and me pulled out of our car and beaten up or abused while we drive. I’m a mama bear and I’ll go to any lengths to protect myself and my girl, but make no mistake about it, I’m a tough Texas woman (living in commie Southern California), through and through, and my blood runs MAGA RED, all the way!!!
So much for your prediction.
being a Texas woman myself, raised and educated in Texas, College graduate in nursing from Texas, What on earth does that have to do with supporting Trump? Why would anyone in their right mind support Trump. The man has no moral attributes, thinks only of himself, if it benefits him financially, he is for it. Trump is not a true American Citizen, he could care less about the American people. It is obvious that he knows nothing about the Constitution. And quite frankly, unsure about his mental status, case in point “cure the covid 19 virus with injecting bleach into your veins.” That is suicide my friends. No hate from me, just saying, look at this situation with open eyes, and not from someone tells you to believe. Spread support for the American people, don’t
politicize everything, we are all human beings with the same goal. Live the American dream.
excellent article, your quite informative and uplifting. Just hope your right. Trump all the WAY!!!!!
So insightful all of the above articles, but I too see an uptick of the black and Latino vote for Trump. Here’s a question for all, has Kamala and Bill Clinton ever hung out? So disgusting, she is a phony and I’m sick of her smirky, cunning, and ungodly laugh. How about Nasty Pelosi wanting to change the 25th Amendment to accommodate her being the real Democratic President. If that’s not enough to frighten the American people, then I don’t know what is!! We must all see through they’re lies and decide which direction we all want this country to proceed in. Trump 2029
I put the I Support Trump bumper sticker in my backseat window and was surprised by the reaction of older white women like myself who honked, used thumbs up or voiced that they would like to do that but
are afraid to. When you get Trump you get what you see. Biden is an unknown, changes his rhetoric, and
has the support of billionaires and movie stars who have no idea what it is to work for a living. We should
all be afraid if Biden wins so ask for others to vote to
keep this country free.
Kamala Harris must have taken lessons from Hillary and Pelosi on how to be the biggest liars & hypocrites in the world. I see them as nothing but power-hungry. I am a senior female citizen and I see all the Leftist females as very vile people! What has happened to our world when all I see & hear is lies, foul language, and people that would stab each other in the back to get one step ahead?
I have never felt like we would ever have a revolution in my life time. I feel one coming on. The Dems will do everything they can but we have one thing in our corner. We have Trump. That’s all we need and our Second amendment. I don’t want Camel ties as my pres. and I don’t want the squad telling me I can’t drive my car. Down with the Dems. Vote RED
I’m like Julia…. 81 years old, used to put on bumper stickers for every election.
Now I’m afraid to. Even if not personally attacked, I don’t want my car destroyed when parked. I have a MAGA cap but don’t wear it.
I hope there are millions of others like me and Julia!!! We WILL VOTE!!!
Liz there are. I help every campaign and its been crazy. I wear my hat and have my bumper sticker on my car and my Trump flag on a flag pole at my house. Yes I fear at times but I refuse to be bullied. Its terrible that they can do all the things they are/have been doing with zero consequence. We cant put signs in our yards they will be stolen in a second, we cant voice our support, we are screamed at, called filthy names attacked etc. The democrats should be so proud of themselves they’ve created a group that call themselves the democratic supporters that are severely, dangerously hate filled, disrespectful, unknowledgeable, vile, monsters . I just wish Barr and Durham would release what they have and indict these corrupt people that have repeatedly tried to destroy our demcracy, our President and this country and maybe a lot of this will go away. I PRAY our President will remain in the WH or we will be doomed
Harris is not Presidential material. During the debate with Pence, I couldn’t stand to watch her smirks and facial expressions. She acted like a little school girl. She is out of her league. She was caught saying lies…even about Lincoln.
Her father is from India. Biden didn’t choose a black running mate as promised. She is radical beyond belief. She is Biden’s puppet master. Biden is not mentally competent. If they take office, she will kick Biden to the curb. Our only hope to save our beloved country is Trump!!!!!!!!!
One wonders with the past history of both Biden/Harris if she acquired the VP the same way she got that BMW & her first AG job in California with help from Willie Brown. She had called Biden both a racists & rapists only a few weeks before.
Her faux pas or slip of the lip revealed her true intentions in a video shortly after accepting the VP running mate – when she said “with a Harris/Biden administration:”!
Nice common sense analysis. The wild card is the massive mail-in ballot fraud which the DNC has been counting on from day one. Such will surely take a terrible toll on Trump. Good luck, patriots.
With open legs and arms
truth is American people see sleepy joe Biden for what he really is. a pathetic politician that’s been hanging around way too long. his accomplishments in 50 years of service are unknown because there aren’t any and what is known about joe isn’t good, any of it. now trump has only been around politics for just a couple of years but his accomplishments are well known and there are too many to even list and he’s just getting started. so it isn’t hard to see that cutting trump short and replacing him with a do nothing lifer politician like joe is not only dumb but a huge mistake. if we re elect trump we must make sure we give him a republican congress and senate as well and there will be no stopping him from taking this country to greatness never seen before. it’s time to stop the real disease in this country the democrat party and time to retire the old fossil biden.
AMEN
I am voting for President Trump. He has shown he loves America and will continue to fight for us. The Democrats are an evil bunch of haters who will do anything to defeat President Trump…even to rigging the election with fake ballots. I am a born again Christian and will stand beside our President to do what I can to support hi and defeat the Democrats. I pray for him daily and ask God to heal him and to protect and guide him. We must do all we can to support him with prayer, money and taking a stand for him and our great country.
TERM LIMITS PLEASE
The only way to stop all this corruption!!!
How can we the people make this happen???
Big data shows the black males breaking for Trump- as much as 20%.
I have an Aunt who has darker skin than Ms Snarky. Why didn’t China Joe Crow Biteme pick and African-American woman who had relatives brought here in chains and slave ships? Ms. Snark’s family flew here in First Class. I think that was he’s way of getting around picking a real African American. Also these White woman who think China Joe Crow is so great why did he say NO White woman need apply. Reverend King said it’s the content of their character not the color of their skin.
Dear Nick Feliccia,
It is comments like this that fuel all the anger in America! Why would you even post this racist comment, yes, I did say it. The terms you used are disrespectful to all humans! Instead of ranting on about other people, why not come up with some useful, constructive solutions to all the problems in America? I think your time would be spent rather than calling people names. Thank you for your time. No hate from me to you or others. Just think we all could benefit if we work together rather than against each other. God Bless
If Biden’s wins this country is in trouble!!!!
When she was just beginning her presidential campaign, I began seeing her called “heals up Harris” from her Willie Brown days. I thought it a fitting nick name and am disappointed it didn’t continue. Her pantsuits are as bad as Hillary’s. I pray I don’t have to look at that the next 4 years!!
It`s Monday Oct. 12 and my wife and I will be leaving in a few minutes to vote.CAN`T WAIT. TRUMP 2020 !!! God save the USA!!!!